I’m somewhat skeptical that the universal happiness hypothesis entails that the plate tectonics possibility (PTP) is worse than the techno-disaster possibility (TDP). If PTP is true and TDP is false, then we should indeed expect there to be far less earth-like civilizations at our current level of tech progress (call these middling civilizations). But we should also expect there to be much more high-tech civilizations which have advanced far beyond our current level of tech progress, when compared to the alternative (PTP false and TDP true).
It’s true that the number of middling civilizations on the latter scenario will greatly outnumber the amount of high tech civilizations on the former scenario, but this doesn’t mean the latter is more preferable. It’s plausible that a high tech civilization, in the absence of TDP, might progress to colonize the entire galaxy, or at least a significant chunk of it.
Because they are so advanced, they might contain far more people than would exist in the TDP scenario. Of course, given that PTP is supposed to be an explanation for the Fermi paradox, such civilizations will have to be rare indeed (say only 1 per 100 galaxies), but even then I think the numbers still work greatly in favor of a PTP scenario. For example, a single kardashev-2 type civilization existing in just one solar system might contain as much, if not more, human beings (e.g. sextillions) than would exist in an entire galaxy maximally populated by middling civilizations (each of which, say, has roughly the same population as modern earth).
This ratio becomes even more extreme if we suppose that our hypothetical kardashev-2 civilization contains virtual, as opposed to embodied beings. I think a matrioshka brain could hypothetically support more than 10^30 uploaded minds, or something in that outrageous ballpark.
On top of that, beings in a hi-tech civilization have the potential to live far more prosperous and happy lives than their counterparts in the middling civilizations. Just as many of us in the modern day have achieved heights on the hedonic scale that our Paleolithic ancestors could scarcely have dreamed of.
Given this, I think TDP being false is still better than it being true and PTP being false (especially since I value the hypothetical conscious states of possible post-singularity entities very highly). But even if you don’t agree with that subjective assessment, it’s not clear to me that the numbers say that we should prefer the TDP case to the PTP case.
Hmm, now that I’ve come back to this comment and thought about this some more, I’m no longer so sure! It turns out, whatever ratio we set our filter at, the number of hi-tech civilizations should be the same on either TDP or PTP, provided the ratio is the same in both cases. Oops.
For instance, if we put the ratio at 1/1000 (only 1/1000 civilizations pass our filter), then on PTP, we get that there are 1/1000 as many middling civilizations compared to TDP, but there’s no late filter. Whereas on TDP we get that there are 1000 times as many middling civilizations as on PTP, but only 1/1000 of those reach hi-tech status due to our late filter. So the number of hi-tech civilizations is the same in both scenarios!
PTP: 1M * 1 = 1 H
TDP: 1,000M * 1/1000 =1H
So TDP still seems preferable since you get the extra middling civilizations in addition. Now granted it could be argued that if the hi-tech civilizations are big enough, then that’s a minuscule addition, but it’s worth noting that my previous comment was in error.
Thanks for these comments! The distinction between what you call "middling" civilizations and more hi-tech ones hadn't occurred to me, and I agree that it changes the numbers. (It's so hard to put numbers on these things, though!) I was operating on the assumption that in none of the possibilities, the numbers wouldn't get too too high because otherwise we'd have heard from them. But what you say does give me more to think about!
I’m somewhat skeptical that the universal happiness hypothesis entails that the plate tectonics possibility (PTP) is worse than the techno-disaster possibility (TDP). If PTP is true and TDP is false, then we should indeed expect there to be far less earth-like civilizations at our current level of tech progress (call these middling civilizations). But we should also expect there to be much more high-tech civilizations which have advanced far beyond our current level of tech progress, when compared to the alternative (PTP false and TDP true).
It’s true that the number of middling civilizations on the latter scenario will greatly outnumber the amount of high tech civilizations on the former scenario, but this doesn’t mean the latter is more preferable. It’s plausible that a high tech civilization, in the absence of TDP, might progress to colonize the entire galaxy, or at least a significant chunk of it.
Because they are so advanced, they might contain far more people than would exist in the TDP scenario. Of course, given that PTP is supposed to be an explanation for the Fermi paradox, such civilizations will have to be rare indeed (say only 1 per 100 galaxies), but even then I think the numbers still work greatly in favor of a PTP scenario. For example, a single kardashev-2 type civilization existing in just one solar system might contain as much, if not more, human beings (e.g. sextillions) than would exist in an entire galaxy maximally populated by middling civilizations (each of which, say, has roughly the same population as modern earth).
This ratio becomes even more extreme if we suppose that our hypothetical kardashev-2 civilization contains virtual, as opposed to embodied beings. I think a matrioshka brain could hypothetically support more than 10^30 uploaded minds, or something in that outrageous ballpark.
On top of that, beings in a hi-tech civilization have the potential to live far more prosperous and happy lives than their counterparts in the middling civilizations. Just as many of us in the modern day have achieved heights on the hedonic scale that our Paleolithic ancestors could scarcely have dreamed of.
Given this, I think TDP being false is still better than it being true and PTP being false (especially since I value the hypothetical conscious states of possible post-singularity entities very highly). But even if you don’t agree with that subjective assessment, it’s not clear to me that the numbers say that we should prefer the TDP case to the PTP case.
Hmm, now that I’ve come back to this comment and thought about this some more, I’m no longer so sure! It turns out, whatever ratio we set our filter at, the number of hi-tech civilizations should be the same on either TDP or PTP, provided the ratio is the same in both cases. Oops.
For instance, if we put the ratio at 1/1000 (only 1/1000 civilizations pass our filter), then on PTP, we get that there are 1/1000 as many middling civilizations compared to TDP, but there’s no late filter. Whereas on TDP we get that there are 1000 times as many middling civilizations as on PTP, but only 1/1000 of those reach hi-tech status due to our late filter. So the number of hi-tech civilizations is the same in both scenarios!
PTP: 1M * 1 = 1 H
TDP: 1,000M * 1/1000 =1H
So TDP still seems preferable since you get the extra middling civilizations in addition. Now granted it could be argued that if the hi-tech civilizations are big enough, then that’s a minuscule addition, but it’s worth noting that my previous comment was in error.
Thanks for these comments! The distinction between what you call "middling" civilizations and more hi-tech ones hadn't occurred to me, and I agree that it changes the numbers. (It's so hard to put numbers on these things, though!) I was operating on the assumption that in none of the possibilities, the numbers wouldn't get too too high because otherwise we'd have heard from them. But what you say does give me more to think about!